This is a simple explanation of the method used to calculate the losses to the average American family's mutual fund holdings, over 5 years, from two types of the mutual funds fraud.
Mutual
funds (not including those in retirement accounts) make up 12.2% of all
families financial assets |
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In the
US, 18% of families have mutual fund accounts (outside of retirement
accounts). |
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Consider family
with income in middle quintile (that in the 40%-60% range) |
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$40,300
average income |
66% own
their home |
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Imputed
average mutual fund holding of middle quintile |
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$47,000 |
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Reported average
mutual funds holding in 2001(from SCF 2001) |
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$83,600 |
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Figure complile from direct holdings plus
half of tax deferred retirement accounts |
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Estimted
costs to typical family over 5 years: |
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Sum of brokerage
overchanges, dilution from market timing and transactions costs from market
timing |
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Estimates
taken from Bullard, Zitzewitz, and Greene-Hodges |
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Brokerage
overchanges averaged |
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1,820 |
$364 |
per year |
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Dilution
costs per year |
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0.14% |
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Related
costs (transaction cost) |
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0.14% |
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Estimated
return on S&P over 5 years from Mar 1996 to Mar 2001 |
13.26% |
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Net return
after costs of dilution and transactions |
12.98% |
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Start |
S&P
gain |
S&P
less costs |
Loss |
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Holdings
in 1996 |
Holdings
in 1991 |
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$47,000 |
$87,595 |
$83,854 |
$3,741 |
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Losses
from "market timing" alone |
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$47,000 |
$87,595 |
$86,518 |
$1,077 |
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$47,000 |
$87,595 |
$86,518 |
$1,077 |
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Compounding
equation for cell D27 |
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This equation compounds the loss from
the brokerage overcharge and the loss of 0.28% return for each |
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of the five years. |
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=(((((F14-F20)*(1+E24)-F20)*(1+E24)-F20)*(1+E24)-F20)*(1+E24)-F20)*(1+E24) |
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Alternatively |
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=($F$14*(1+$E$24)^5)-(364*1.1298^5+364*1.1298^4+364*1.1298^3+364*1.1298^2+364*1.1298) |
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Compounding
equation from D30 |
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=($F$14)*(1+13.26%-0.28%)^5 |
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Alternatively |
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=($F$14*(1+$E$24)^5) |
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