This is a simple explanation of the method used to calculate the losses to the average American family's mutual fund holdings, over 5 years, from two types of the mutual funds fraud.

 

Mutual funds (not including those in retirement accounts) make up 12.2% of all families financial assets

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

In the US, 18% of families have mutual fund accounts (outside of retirement accounts).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Consider family with income in middle quintile (that in the 40%-60% range)

 

 

 

 

 

$40,300 average income

66% own their home

 

 

 

 

 

Imputed average mutual fund holding of middle quintile

 

$47,000

 

 

 

Reported average mutual funds holding in 2001(from SCF 2001)

 

$83,600

 

 

 

   Figure complile from direct holdings plus half of tax deferred retirement accounts

 

 

Estimted costs to typical family over 5 years:

 

 

 

 

 

Sum of brokerage overchanges, dilution from market timing and transactions costs from market timing

 

 

Estimates taken from Bullard, Zitzewitz, and Greene-Hodges

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Brokerage overchanges averaged

 

1,820

$364

per year

 

 

Dilution costs per year

 

0.14%

 

 

 

 

Related costs (transaction cost)

 

0.14%

 

 

 

 

Estimated return on S&P over 5 years from Mar 1996 to Mar 2001

13.26%

 

 

 

 

Net return after costs of dilution and transactions

12.98%

 

 

 

 

Start

S&P gain

S&P less costs

Loss

 

 

 

 

Holdings in 1996

Holdings in 1991

 

 

 

 

 

$47,000

$87,595

$83,854

$3,741

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Losses from "market timing" alone

 

 

 

 

 

$47,000

$87,595

$86,518

$1,077

 

 

 

 

$47,000

$87,595

$86,518

$1,077

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Compounding equation for cell D27

 

 

 

 

 

     This equation compounds the loss from the brokerage overcharge and the loss of 0.28% return for each

 

     of the five years.

 

 

 

 

 

 

=(((((F14-F20)*(1+E24)-F20)*(1+E24)-F20)*(1+E24)-F20)*(1+E24)-F20)*(1+E24)

 

 

 

 

   Alternatively

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

=($F$14*(1+$E$24)^5)-(364*1.1298^5+364*1.1298^4+364*1.1298^3+364*1.1298^2+364*1.1298)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Compounding equation from D30

 

 

 

 

 

=($F$14)*(1+13.26%-0.28%)^5

 

 

 

 

 

 

   Alternatively

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

=($F$14*(1+$E$24)^5)